Everyone, whether they are a project manager or not, likes stability. Having stability means you can count on things being about the same from day to day; like gravity. Or McDonald’s. What we don’t like in our lives, especially if we haven’t planned for it, are the moments which are fickle, unstable or arbitrary. Like the weather. Or the Hubble Constant. Dealing with variability is part of every project manager’s life.
Whenever you feel like a project is hard to manage, does it feel like you are playing a professional version of “Whack-a-mole?” If so, let’s take a closer look at the most basic element of any project plan––a single task. Let’s see if we can detect where this feeling of instability comes from.
Single Task Elements
A single tasks contains the “smallest effective dose” of project information required to describe a package of work. We usually describe a work package with at least three things:
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- A description of the work
- The resource(s) required to do the work
- An estimate about how long the work may take under agreed conditions
We could also include information like the expected outcomes, the key inputs, and identifying the success criteria.
Single tasks are like single cell organisms you learned about in Biology class. Single cell organisms contain all the elements required to sustain life. To sustain life, single cell organisms need to display organization, ability to grow, ability to reproduce, and the ability respond to external stimuli.
In projects a single task is organized with other tasks. These tasks are organized into a project. As more and more single tasks are added to the project plan, the project grows in size. Single tasks can reproduce and morph into other similar tasks. And, single tasks planned one day will respond to various external stimuli when they encounter reality.
The Time Between Planning & Execution
These single task elements are generally well understood. But, here’s one which might not be––what about the condition the task was in when it was planned to the time until the task was completed? For example, a single tasks is planned with the information listed above and given an estimated duration of three days. Many hours, days or even weeks later, the project manager decides this three day tasks is ready to start. The task is worked by the assigned resources. Once complete, do you think is will take exactly three days? Maybe.
Many variables and decisions were considered during the planning phase of the three day task. Many variables and decisions can change before this task is considered complete. The original estimate of three days is unlikely to be the actual duration because of the inherent variability within each element used to describe the task. The actual duration could be two days, or one day, or four days, or six days, or ten days. Or, you could say the task is planned to take an average of three days. This also implies a degree of variability.
As the task is worked, more information about the work is available––the task description may no longer represent the original intent. The resources assigned may no longer be available; different resources were assigned. The resource assigned were available, but didn’t do their best work. The task inputs were passed along from prior tasks without all the expected data; unplanned rework was necessary. Some days it seems like the actual execution of the tasks has no resemblance to the task imagined.
Task Time Variability
But also consider the nature of task time variability. Will the actual duration be a nice bell shaped average of three days?
What happens when someone asks us, “Can I get a minute of your time?” For one thing, it never takes a minute. It could take five minutes, or ten minutes or more depending on how interesting the topic is. The bell shaped tail to the right of the curve can be long. A discussion like this never takes less than a minute. The bell shaped tail to the left of the curve can be short.
In summation, whenever you feel like you’ve spent your day playing “Whack-a-mole”, look and see if it was due to the differences between what was planned and what actually happened. Do a quick check to compare:
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- How the task was described and how it actually turn out?
- Who was planned to do the work and who actually did it?
- How capable you thought the resources were and how they actually performed?
- How well the success criteria were met or did you have to cut some corners?
- Did something unexpected happen which effected how long the task took to complete?
Even in the smallest project element––a single task––there will be a difference between how the task was planned to how it was executed. Variability is at the heart of every task in every project. And, since all projects are made up of more than one task how much variability can we expect?
Dealing with variability is part of every project managers life. You could say it’s a fact of life. How well do you do this part of your job?