Is making predictions a project management skill?

Yes, it is!  What is one of the end results of gathering project requirements, assembling your team, and planning the project? An important outcome is the expected due date. You may think to yourself that date is going to be easy to hit or it’s going to take a miracle to bring the project in on time. No matter what, you are, in effect, making a prediction about the future.
 
As I’ve mentioned in another blog post, we humans are not very good at making predictions. But, the fact is you agreed to take on the role of project manager. You agreed to lead of group of people towards a goal. You can’t wait to get started or to reach the next milestone. By taking on the role of project manager, whether you like it or not, you have agreed to make predictions about the future.

Risky Business

Do you realize what a risk this is? You may be the kind of leader who like’s taking risks or has been successful at avoiding the negative consequences of risky behavior. For others, we realize that many projects do not proceed as planned or can fail in many ways. For example, you may have experienced one or more of the standard failures:
    • Many of your projects are late.
    • Usually, the original due dates are not met.
    • There are too many changes to deal with.
    • Too often resources are not available when needed (even when they are promised).
    • The budget runs out long before the project is done.
If you get nothing else from spending your time reading this post, I want you to remember one thing:
 
every project manager must deal with the few things which make it difficult to make reliable predictions.
 
Every project manager strings a series of tasks together. Every project manager has to combine parallel work efforts and integrate them. Every project manager doesn’t seem to have enough people on their team. Every project manager finds working with other people difficult. Every project manager is bound by a limited budget. Every project manager agrees to meet or exceed their customer’s expectations. Every project manager hears the ticking of the time left on the clock. Every project manager must deal with the few things which make it difficult to make predictions.

Next Step

Does this sound like you? If so, stick around, because we’ll examine each of the things which make your job difficult when trying to predict the project’s due date. Once you know what they are and know what to do abut them, you can look forward to experience more of these standard results:
    • Most projects are delivered on time.
    • Usually, the original due date is met.
    • Changes to project plans are well managed.
    • Resources are available when needed.
    • The budget supports the completion of the project.
Are you with me?