The Status Meeting
Everyone Is Busy
My Flashback
Two Basic Conditions
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- the safety is not removed from each of the tasks during planning.
- my resources believe during execution there is more than enough time.
What did I do? I promised to deliver this project in three months and on a specific date to the whole senior staff. I know better! Never promise a single date; there are too many tasks, one right after another, each one with a high level of uncertainty. Too many things can go wrong. I’m bound to break my promise.
But, I promised anyway. My customers demanded it. What do I do now? As project managers, making promises is something we do all the time. The three main things we promise are:
Even if the project is delivered on the promised date, what is my confidence level that my two other important parameters––the budget and the full scope described in the specifications document––will also be found acceptable? I’m in a deep, dark hole.
My lack of confidence comes from knowing about the variability of one task (See blog post What So Interesting About a Single Task). For the smallest project element––a single task––there will be a difference between how long the task is planned to take to how long it will actually take. Variability is at the heart of every task in every project.
But, what happens when we string a series of tasks, with a lot of potential variability, together? Watching one task after another get checked off is a satisfying experience. It’s a lot like watching hundreds of Dominoes fall into a pretty pattern.
But, this project is made up of over 200 tasks. In many places in the project network, one task must finish before the next one can start. These tasks are in predecessor order, which means the first task must be completed before the second task can start. The second task must finish before the third task can start, and so on. Can we predict the effect of one task’s variability on the next? Yes, we can, up to a point.
Theoretically, if a project has three tasks, each tasks is planned to take three days, the total planned duration is nine days. Let’s be generous and say that each three day task will finish on time only 50% of the time. What’s the chance that these three tasks will finish after nine days? Flip a coin for me.
If the three tasks finish after nine days, it means there was little to no effect of variability across the three tasks. But, a single task planned for three days rarely takes three days to finish. Why? There are many inputs to the planning of a single task, e.g., the tangible information used to complete the work, the task description itself, the resources required, the agreed upon success criteria, the risks involved, and the task duration estimate. Each of these elements are only known once the task is being worked or has been completed.
For example, each planned three day task took only two days to complete. That’s a total duration of six days, not nine.
For example, each planned three day task took four days to complete. That’s a total duration of 12 days, not nine.
For example, one task took two days, and the other two tasks took four days. That’s a total of 10 days, not nine. For example, one task took one day, and the other two tasks took five days. That’s a total duration of 11 days, not nine.
It’s easy to talk yourself out of corner if your project is effected by fire, war, terrorist activity, strike, lockout, flood or natural catastrophe. Even if your project is not effected by these things, do you find yourself making a bigger deal out of even the smallest excuses when you have to explain why you are or are going to be late?
Why did I give in and make a promise about the project’s due date? I could blame it on our customers who is looking to find a supplier who’s deliveries are on time, every time. We would get more business from them (as long as we don’t compromise on the product’s features, quality, customer service, lead-time or pricing). And, if we can sustain our on-time delivery reliability over the long term, our customers would begin to trust us again.
But, at the end of the day, I have a reputation for making good on my promises. This time, I’ve exceed my own inflated optimism. In a moment of cockiness and self promotion, I may have set myself up for failure before the project starts. I only have myself to blame.
To predict the actual duration of a single task is hard enough. To predict the actual duration of a many single tasks dependent on each other in a predecessor relationship is even harder.
In your projects how many single tasks are there? And, how many of these single tasks are where the successor tasks are dependent on the predecessor(s)?
I know there has to be a better way. But, what due date should I have promise? Generally, I try not too paint myself into this dark and lonely corner. If pressed, one way out is to give a range of dates, from the best case to the worst case. Your software may not support this, but try to figure it out. It’s the only way to avoid being disappointed and manage some self-respect.
Everyone, whether they are a project manager or not, likes stability. Having stability means you can count on things being about the same from day to day; like gravity. Or McDonald’s. What we don’t like in our lives, especially if we haven’t planned for it, are the moments which are fickle, unstable or arbitrary. Like the weather. Or the Hubble Constant. Dealing with variability is part of every project manager’s life.
Whenever you feel like a project is hard to manage, does it feel like you are playing a professional version of “Whack-a-mole?” If so, let’s take a closer look at the most basic element of any project plan––a single task. Let’s see if we can detect where this feeling of instability comes from.
A single tasks contains the “smallest effective dose” of project information required to describe a package of work. We usually describe a work package with at least three things:
We could also include information like the expected outcomes, the key inputs, and identifying the success criteria.
Single tasks are like single cell organisms you learned about in Biology class. Single cell organisms contain all the elements required to sustain life. To sustain life, single cell organisms need to display organization, ability to grow, ability to reproduce, and the ability respond to external stimuli.
In projects a single task is organized with other tasks. These tasks are organized into a project. As more and more single tasks are added to the project plan, the project grows in size. Single tasks can reproduce and morph into other similar tasks. And, single tasks planned one day will respond to various external stimuli when they encounter reality.
These single task elements are generally well understood. But, here’s one which might not be––what about the condition the task was in when it was planned to the time until the task was completed? For example, a single tasks is planned with the information listed above and given an estimated duration of three days. Many hours, days or even weeks later, the project manager decides this three day tasks is ready to start. The task is worked by the assigned resources. Once complete, do you think is will take exactly three days? Maybe.
Many variables and decisions were considered during the planning phase of the three day task. Many variables and decisions can change before this task is considered complete. The original estimate of three days is unlikely to be the actual duration because of the inherent variability within each element used to describe the task. The actual duration could be two days, or one day, or four days, or six days, or ten days. Or, you could say the task is planned to take an average of three days. This also implies a degree of variability.
As the task is worked, more information about the work is available––the task description may no longer represent the original intent. The resources assigned may no longer be available; different resources were assigned. The resource assigned were available, but didn’t do their best work. The task inputs were passed along from prior tasks without all the expected data; unplanned rework was necessary. Some days it seems like the actual execution of the tasks has no resemblance to the task imagined.
But also consider the nature of task time variability. Will the actual duration be a nice bell shaped average of three days?
What happens when someone asks us, “Can I get a minute of your time?” For one thing, it never takes a minute. It could take five minutes, or ten minutes or more depending on how interesting the topic is. The bell shaped tail to the right of the curve can be long. A discussion like this never takes less than a minute. The bell shaped tail to the left of the curve can be short.
In summation, whenever you feel like you’ve spent your day playing “Whack-a-mole”, look and see if it was due to the differences between what was planned and what actually happened. Do a quick check to compare:
Even in the smallest project element––a single task––there will be a difference between how the task was planned to how it was executed. Variability is at the heart of every task in every project. And, since all projects are made up of more than one task how much variability can we expect?
Dealing with variability is part of every project managers life. You could say it’s a fact of life. How well do you do this part of your job?
No, you don’t. If you don’t have a deadline, what you are working on is a hobby, not a project.
There are a wide variety of projects. All have the same three parameters––what we have been contracted to do, how much we can spend to do it and how long do we have to do the contracted work.
This last element, how long, is particularly disturbing. It requires us to make a prediction about the future––when will the project be completed.
Are we allowed to take forever to finish the project? No. Everyone seems to want it done as soon as possible or on a specific date. In other words, we are trying to hit a target. And, my definition of a project target is a downrange destination which takes time and energy to reach. A prediction. A hint of a forecast. A guess?
At the same time, you are expected to coax your team into meeting the unique elements your customer has foisted upon you. And, to do so with a limited budget (a budget somewhat less than infinite).
But, here’s some news which puts even more pressure on doing both of these things while trying to hit our project due date target:
Philip Tetlock, author and psychology professor at Penn State, conducted a long-running experiment. He included about 300 experts and tracked the accuracy of about 80,000 predictions over the course of 20 years.
He found that experts, relative to a baseline group of Berkeley undergraduates, did somewhat better. How did they do relative to a random guessing strategy? Well, they did a little bit better than that, but not as much as you might hope.
Do you think your project predictions are any different? Check out my short summary of the success rate of a wide variety of projects of those which came before you.
Yet, the bigger problem for us project managers is to make a prediction about a due date for not one project, but often for a portfolio of projects. Compound this with the demand for the number of projects your organizations expects you to deliver is higher than ever.
What do you think happens to project managers who make promises and then don’t deliver on them? (I still cringe when I think about the times I had to tell someone a project was going to be late. What was worse, were the pitiful excuses I had to make to justify the delay. Quite sad.)
Delivering a reliable flow of projects to completion is essential for us to support our organization and our customers. Delays in project delivery lead to cost over runs and reduce the trust of the businesses we support. We also delay the much needed benefits each project is expected to deliver.
No, you don’t have forever to finish a project. If that’s not hard enough, you also have to hit your promised, due date target. Good luck.
You may ask, “Are you telling me that when a project is delivered late, it’s because the uncertainty was not managed?”
Yes, that’s what I’m saying.
We can do all the project requirements planning as we want, recruit the best team members, and have a budget others would be jealous of. None of these things will help up correctly predict the future. It’s a fact uncertainty exists in all projects.
We also know that the three key objectives of every project––duration, scope and budget, are interdependent. A change in one will have an effect on the others. For example, when many projects are delivered later than planned, we can expect costs to increase. It’s a fact that the longer a project runs, there’s more time to make changes, too
But, what if someone asks for another feature or more functionality beyond the agreed upon scope? Accepting these requests, costs go up and the project will take longer to finish.
Although, one way to reduce costs and reduce the length of the project is to reduce the scope. Many times this seems like a good idea. But, what about work that was underway? Some work may have to be stopped and scrapped. This wastes the team’s efforts and the costs associated with the work.
Salvaging some of the work may help, but this could mean rework. Rework also comes at a cost and the potential for lengthening the project’s duration.
Yes, it’s clear that the three key objectives of every project––duration, scope and budget, are interdependent. But, the cause which effects them all started with the fact what uncertainty exists in all projects. If we fail to manage uncertainty in projects, then many project are delivered later than planned, etc., etc., etc.
So, if we do manage uncertainty in our projects we can improve our on-time, scope, and budget performance?
Yes, that’s what I’m saying.
In the upcoming Core Problem posts, I’ll go into more and more explanation. I’ll give many reasons for why we must manage uncertainty. If we want our projects to achieve the scope, cost and on-time delivery objectives, it’s something we need to do.
You may be familiar with common, everyday projects like road construction, a new building, or an addition to your house. These kinds of projects seem to have no end sometimes. Other projects do have a deadline, like the local 10k race on Labor Day, the grand opening of a new grocery store, or the first day of school.
All of these projects meet the standard dictionary definitions:
Using these definitions, we can include other more mundane activities as a project:
Notice how many parts of the project’s definition are needed, e.g., people, the reasons, resources, place and time. And, don’t forget there is a conscious or sometimes unconscious way of measuring success such as:
These definitions of success are in stark contrast to larger corporate-type projects, for instance.
Large project success criteria include things like:
But, don’t be mislead, even our small, personal coffee, camping, school play or pizza projects can be measured by three important elements: